As we inch closer to election day, some co-workers and I were recently discussing how in the heck we can trust any of the polls we’ll all start seeing on the nightly news – because of the number of people who are canceling their landline phones in favor of cell phones. Or, have caller ID on their landline and never answer the pollsters call.
So, who are the pollsters calling?
How accurate can the opinions they gather really be, if the people with landlines tend to be older, etc…?
It’s not a new issue, but the polling industry can’t trust their numbers can they? The Pew Research Center says the accuracy is in question.
While – according to Pew – the difference in a landline-only vs. cell phone-only poll may only be a few percentage points, how can you really know?
At the very least, I’m guessing it must take longer than it used to to get a semi-accurate sample, with people with landlines checking their caller ID’s and ignoring numbers they don’t know.
That’s what I do.
Whether the lack of landlines is an issue or not – I’m certainly no expert – the only poll that matters is on election day. I think polls in the weeks before an election are increasingly becoming less relevant anyway. I think most people want to make up their minds and vote the way they want to vote. They don’t care if you tell them their guy or gal is up five or 10 percent with three days to go.
Do you?
