Had this thought about advertising on TV, and like many expected “trends” in social media I wonder what the odds are that it will develop as many people think it might.
Suffice it to say there are much smarter people than me on this topic, I’ve never sold ads on TV and never sufficiently studied advertising in general, but I wanted to develop my thoughts on it.
That is, at what point will advertisers realize that it may not be worth their investment to put commercials on TV?
TV’s always been a crapshoot in my opinion anyway. Take a TV newscast, for example, of which I’ve produced and watched thousands in my short lifetime (along with all the painful 3-minute blocks of commercials.)
At any given time, you have a 65-year-old grandpa and a 30-year-old father of a toddler watching. Or, a single 20-something woman and a 45-year-old soccer mom.
So, advertisers throw the kitchen sink at them. Cars. Restaurants. Tampons. Candy bars.
Nice mix, huh?
Now, throw in the fact that a year ago 20% of American homes had a DVR (Leichtman Research Group). And, 84% said using a DVR to skip commericials was very important. 8% said being able to skip commercials was the best part of having a DVR.
I’m sure that 20% is higher today, and growing. I’ve had a DVR for two years and I would agree with the 84% who deem skipping commercials as very important. (The best part is the ease of recording programs).
Given the growth in the number of people not even seeing commercials on TV, where are we headed in just a few short years?
How will politicians change their TV ad plans?
How will retail and other customer-facing companies look to the Web and social networks to find their key demographic online?
To some extent you could argue they already are. Banner ads and other personalized ads on Web sites you visit, targeted at you because of your viewing habits, are already picking up steam.
But how will that evolve? No one on the Web, who is used to skipping commercials on their TV at home, wants to sit through a 10-second ad before watching a video or reading some text.
Like I said, there are much smarter people than me considering these questions and what to do about them. I just find it interesting to ponder and it will be interesting to watch.
